AGP Executive Report

Iran Tension Pause: US President Donald Trump says he has halted a planned attack on Iran after Tehran sent a peace proposal, while warning the military is ready to strike if talks fail—sending oil lower and keeping Asia markets cautious. China-Taiwan Flashpoint: Taiwan’s premier blamed China’s military activity as the biggest regional instability source as China’s navy sent a carrier task force for drills in the Western Pacific. Sanctions Pressure in Central Asia: Kyrgyzstan suspended 50 firms tied to alleged Russia sanctions-evasion risks, its first major move of this kind, after EU scrutiny of re-export routes. AI Cooperation Push: Singapore’s Pacific trade chief urged China-Singapore collaboration to make AI a regional “public good,” with ASEAN use cases like smart healthcare and logistics. Philippines Currency Stress: MUFG flagged the peso as Asia’s worst performer since late February amid US-Iran jitters and higher global rates. Energy-Climate Deals: India and Norway agreed a “green strategic partnership” to speed clean energy and resilience as West Asia disruptions keep fuel supply concerns front and center.

US–China Diplomacy: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called the Trump–Xi summit “encouraging,” saying trade wars should cool and cooperation should rise, even as details on deals remain thin. Energy Security: Marcos also flagged talks with Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi on stabilising petroleum supplies, including “non-traditional” sources, while Japan and South Korea prepare emergency fuel swap plans after Middle East disruptions. Regional Heat & Power: Bangkok is forecast to become SE Asia’s hottest major city by 2050, and the Philippines’ grid officials warned El Niño could bring more yellow/red alerts and rotational brownouts. Tech & AI Infrastructure: Dell is positioning itself as OpenAI’s on-prem route for Codex, pushing frontier models into customer-controlled systems. Markets & Risk Mood: Investors stayed cautious after the US delayed an Iran strike, with China’s “strategic stability” framing helping sentiment but not trade or Iran progress. Public Sector Shake-up (NZ): New Zealand plans to cut public service jobs by about 8,700 by mid-2029 to save $2.4b, using AI and agency mergers. Tourism & Growth: Jamaica unveiled new airline routes and a $5b tourism push as visitor numbers surged.

India–West Asia Energy Pressure: India says it will keep buying Russian crude even after a US waiver lapsed, stressing “commercial sense” and energy security as crude volatility bites. Trade Watch: India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $28.4bn in April as exports rose 13.8% but imports climbed faster, while services helped narrow the overall gap to $7.8bn. Fuel & Food Costs: India’s fertiliser subsidy bill is set to jump by about ₹15,000 crore in the April–June quarter, with West Asia-linked import costs driving the increase. Regional Geopolitics: China urged Japan to stop “surging forward” on Taiwan and remilitarisation ahead of heightened superpower rivalry after Trump’s Beijing trip. Health Security: Africa faces a new Ebola emergency as donor support fades, pushing calls for “health sovereignty.” Southeast Asia Connectivity: Guangxi’s Pinglu Canal is set to open in September, cutting shipping distance to Singapore and boosting China–ASEAN trade. Human Rights: Amnesty says only Singapore and Vietnam still carry out executions in Southeast Asia, with Singapore’s numbers rising sharply. Diplomacy: PM Modi began a Norway visit focused on technology, green growth and Nordic partnership. Crime Crackdown: Sri Lanka is emerging as a new scam hub as syndicates relocate after crackdowns elsewhere.

West Asia Shock: Asia markets slid as drone attacks in the Gulf and fresh Iran-war jitters pushed oil higher and battered bonds; the Strait of Hormuz is still “closed to all but a trickle,” and Moody’s now warns the disruption could become a structural risk through autumn, not a temporary blip. Markets & FX: India’s rupee is seen testing record lows again, with investors bracing for inflation and growth stress tied to the Iran shock. US–China/Taiwan: After Trump’s Beijing trip, Taiwan’s top envoy insisted the island just wants China not to “swallow” it, while Trump’s Taiwan remarks keep raising alarm in the region. Human Rights: Amnesty says global executions hit a 44-year high in 2025, led by Iran and Saudi Arabia. Pacific Focus: Australia and Vanuatu moved closer to a revised bilateral deal, while the Pacific seabed authority urged ocean governance to stay science-based and led by Pacific nations.

US–China Aftershocks: South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung held a 30-minute call with Donald Trump on the results of Trump’s Xi summit, with both sides discussing North Korea and the Middle East, as Trump said he will play a “necessary role” for peace and stability on the peninsula. APEC Trade Push: APEC economies met in Shanghai to advance a trade and investment agenda ahead of the Suzhou ministerial meeting, focusing on digital trade, paperless customs, and cutting cross-border barriers. West Asia Energy Shock: With Strait of Hormuz tensions still looming, governments across the region are tightening belt-and-suspenders—Uttar Pradesh in India advised staggered work-from-home to cushion fuel and energy disruptions. Digital Divide: New data highlights a massive gender gap online: about 240 million more men than women use the internet globally. Space & Defence Industry: ICEYE will set up its first Indian satellite manufacturing hub for small SAR satellites, aiming to scale production for Asia-Pacific demand.

UN Urban Push: Malaysia’s housing minister Nga Kor Ming is in Baku to line up UN-Habitat work on urban liveability, digital governance and Voluntary Local Reviews, including a proposed Malaysia-based “Global Centre of Excellence” and a digital urbanisation lab. Nepal Higher-Education Shock: Nepal’s government has vacated vice-chancellor posts to “depoliticise” universities, but the bigger worry is whether top academics will now want the job amid political pressure. US–China Reset, Taiwan Still Hot: Trump and Xi wrapped talks in Beijing with stability language and limited specifics; Trump also signalled he may withhold a $14bn Taiwan arms package, while Taiwan insists on its sovereign status. West Asia Fallout: Oil and shipping stress continues, with India tightening silver bar imports and imposing a windfall tax on petrol exports while cutting duties on diesel and ATF. Sudan Civilian Toll: Experts say drones—supplied by multiple foreign backers—are driving a sharp rise in civilian deaths. Asia Tech/Trade: Malaysia’s UN-Habitat push and Indonesia’s push for a Bali financial hub underline how cities and capital are becoming the new battlegrounds.

West Asia Shock to India’s Economy: India’s retail inflation inched up to 3.48% in April, but the bigger worry is tighter financial conditions and West Asia’s spillover—food prices are still under pressure while fuel inflation eased. Aviation Relief in Delhi: Delhi cut VAT on aviation turbine fuel from 25% to 7%, a bid to blunt the cost hit from the region’s fuel uncertainty. US–China Taiwan Tension: Trump’s latest Taiwan remarks—calling US arms sales a “negotiating chip” tied to China—has renewed anxieties in Taipei and complicates Washington’s Taiwan policy. Nepal Rights Move: Nepal created a new ministry explicitly covering gender and sexual minorities, marking a historic step for LGBTIQ protections. Press Freedom Under Fire in Bangladesh: A global press watchdog urged Bangladesh to release journalists arrested over a tribunal case tied to the 2013 Shapla Chattar crackdown. Cricket Meets Politics: Pakistan PCB chief Mohsin Naqvi’s possible trip to Ahmedabad for ICC meetings around the IPL final remains uncertain.

India-UAE Energy Pivot: Modi’s brief Abu Dhabi stop is set to focus on keeping oil and LNG flowing as Gulf tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep energy supply chains fragile, with new defence/technology cooperation also on the agenda. West Asia Mediation Push: After BRICS talks in New Delhi ended without consensus, Iran’s FM Araghchi urged India to play a “greater role” in de-escalation, while Modi publicly backed UAE restraint and condemned attacks. BRICS Fracture: Iran and the UAE blocked a joint statement, underscoring how the West Asia crisis is splitting the bloc even as India tries to hold a chair’s line. US-China Taiwan Tension: Trump returned from Beijing saying he made “no commitment” on Taiwan, while Xi’s sharper warning keeps Taiwan the top risk for Washington-Beijing ties. Energy Shock at Home: India’s fuel prices rose again amid the Iran-linked energy squeeze, with officials blaming global conditions and critics pointing to political fallout. Market Mood: Samsung’s upcoming strike rattled South Korea’s tech stocks, dragging broader Asia sentiment. Humanitarian Link: China delivered a $1m aid package to Papua New Guinea, reinforcing Beijing’s Pacific presence.

US-China Summit: Trump and Xi wrapped up talks in Beijing with a calmer tone than expected, but no joint statement and no clear breakthroughs—still, they publicly aligned on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and pushing Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons. West Asia Shipping: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi doubled down that Hormuz is open to all vessels except those from countries at war with Tehran, saying Iran will guide ships (including Indian ones) through mines and obstacles. BRICS Friction: BRICS foreign ministers in New Delhi condemned unilateral sanctions, yet struggled to converge on West Asia as Iran and UAE positions clashed. India-UAE Energy Push: PM Modi’s UAE stop produced major oil and LPG agreements, including expanded crude storage cooperation, as India tries to blunt the energy shock. Domestic Pressure in India: Fuel prices rose again by about ₹3/litre, while a proposed new tax on foreign travel is reportedly being considered to fund the centre and curb non-essential trips. Pacific Politics: Solomon Islands elected opposition leader Matthew Wale as prime minister after a no-confidence vote. Sports & Culture: MMA: Sangram Singh set to become the first Indian to fight for an Asia Championship title in Kuala Lumpur; Pink Shirt Day in NZ targets bullying in Pacific communities.

Pacific Politics: The Solomon Islands has elected opposition leader Matthew Wale as prime minister, ousting Jeremiah Manele after a no-confidence vote—Wale says “change is coming” as the China-linked security relationship remains a key Western concern. US–China Flashpoint: In Beijing, Xi warned Trump that mishandling Taiwan could trigger “clashes” or even conflict, while Trump pushed for a “stronger and better” relationship and both sides also agreed Iran can’t have nuclear weapons and the Strait of Hormuz must stay open. West Asia Energy Shock: India’s petrol and diesel jumped again by ₹3 a litre in major cities, as the Iran war keeps squeezing fuel supply and raises costs. BRICS Diplomacy: Iran’s foreign minister urged BRICS to resist “American bullying” as BRICS talks in New Delhi continue amid war and oil-price pressure. Local Governance & Rights: Hawaii passed a law aimed at limiting corporate political spending after Citizens United, and Fiji stressed workplace democracy as vital for development.

BRICS Diplomacy Under Strain: India used its BRICS Foreign Ministers’ meet in New Delhi to press for “safe and unimpeded” shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, while Iran’s Araghchi lashed out at the US as “bullying” and warned that “empires in decline” get more aggressive. US–China Summit Watch: In Beijing, Trump and Xi projected a cooperative tone, but Taiwan stayed the flashpoint as Xi warned mishandling the island could spark clashes. Energy Pressure in Focus: India moved to protect supplies as two LPG tankers crossed Hormuz toward Kandla and New Mangalore, while wholesale inflation hit a 42-month high on West Asia-driven fuel shocks. Regional Moves: Maldives FM Iruthisham Adam said Malé can rely on India and urged Hormuz to stay open; Malaysia approved Penang to host the Asia Pacific Deaf Games in October. Business & Tech: MultiDyne named Alex Collins to lead APAC sales; Cathay Pacific cut fuel surcharges from 16 May. Sports & Culture: KBS approved Penang as host for the Asia Pacific Deaf Games.

US–China Summit in Beijing: Trump and Xi meet in a high-stakes Beijing summit as the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz hang over trade, supply chains, AI, and Taiwan. Iran Diplomacy Row: US Vice President JD Vance says talks with Tehran are making progress, while the UAE denies Netanyahu’s “secret visit” claims—sparking a fresh war of narratives as Iran warns “colluders” will be held accountable. BRICS Precursor in India: India hosts BRICS foreign ministers May 14–15, with West Asia and energy security expected to dominate, just as Trump’s China visit runs in parallel. Asia Markets & Reserves: Asia stocks lift on AI optimism, but foreign-exchange reserves slide as oil-price shocks force currency defence—Philippines, India and Indonesia hit hardest. Pacific Security & Health: Fiji is flagged as one of the Pacific’s worst meth hotspots, while Vanuatu pushes digital resilience and Cambodia embeds mental health into primary care. Trade & Mobility: Australia’s tourism event spotlights renewed China links; Central Asia tourism plans and UK–Central Asia trade priorities signal a push to diversify routes and partners.

Indonesia Court Case: Jakarta prosecutors are seeking an 18-year prison term for Gojek co-founder Nadiem Anwar Makarim over alleged COVID-era corruption tied to school Chromebook procurement, asking for a 1 billion rupiah fine and asset seizure tied to 809 billion rupiah in repayments plus claims of “unexplained wealth.” Aviation Deal: daa International has been named strategic partner for Vietnam’s Gia Binh International Airport near Hanoi, aiming for up to 30m passengers and 1.6m tonnes cargo by 2030. Tech & Policy: Microsoft’s report says Central Asia lags badly in everyday generative AI use, with Kazakhstan highest at 70th out of 147. Health Economics: A Nature Communications study warns diabetes could cut global output by $5.177tn by 2050. Pacific Environment: King Charles backs Melanesian plans to protect 30% of exclusive economic zones. India Austerity: Modi’s convoy is being downsized and states are following suit as West Asia tensions squeeze fuel and forex.

West Asia Shockwave: India is tightening the screws on imports and spending after PM Modi’s austerity push—gold and silver duties jumped to 15% from 6%, and officials insist there’s no fuel shortage as LPG output is ramped up to 54,000 tonnes/day. Everyday Cost Pressure: With cooking gas prices soaring, public health worries are growing as some households reportedly fall back on firewood and coal. Gold Rush Backlash: A viral claim that Indira Gandhi urged Indians to stop buying gold in 1967 was flagged as fake, even as Modi’s “postpone gold” message reshapes demand. Indo-Pacific Security: Japan’s military posture is under scrutiny after it fired anti-ship missiles during joint drills, while China urges the region to reject Japan’s “new militarism.” China-US Spotlight: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has joined Trump’s Beijing trip, adding heat to a summit expected to focus on trade and Iran-linked security. Tourism Beat: Malaysia hit a new Q1 record with 10.65m international visitors, driven largely by China travel.

West Asia Shockwaves: Oil jumped again as Trump said the ceasefire is “on life support” and the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively blocked, lifting Brent and WTI about 3.6% and reviving fears of a wider flare-up. India Politics & Austerity Backlash: Modi’s fresh “save fuel, work from home, delay gold” push is now sparking a political firestorm, with opposition leaders calling it panic-making while markets wobble on energy costs. Diplomacy Under Strain: Taiwan President Lai thanked the US for defence help ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, while Iran’s foreign minister is set to travel to India for BRICS talks. Regional Borders: Thailand is building a concrete border fence in Chanthaburi, a move critics say shifts from cooperation to unilateral enforcement. Public Health Tech: Malaysia’s MOH says it may add a hantavirus tracker to MySejahtera’s Disease Tracker if needed. Business: Konvy raised $22m for Southeast Asia expansion; Kazakhstan targets $52bn in non-resource exports by 2030; China’s vehicle exports stayed strong into Russia, Brazil and Europe.

West Asia Shock, India’s Response: Oil climbed after Trump said the Iran ceasefire is on “life support,” keeping pressure on global energy and markets. Fuel & Austerity Push: India’s government insists there’s no shortage, citing 60 days of crude, 60 days of gas and 45 days of LPG, while PM Modi urges fuel restraint, work-from-home, fewer foreign trips and fewer gold purchases—sparking a political fight over whether it signals deeper stress. Trade & Diplomacy: Trump heads to Beijing for talks with Xi on trade, Taiwan and Iran; meanwhile Kazakhstan–Indonesia trade hit $244.7m and Kazakhstan invited Brazil’s president. Pacific Focus: PNG’s Marape and Tonga’s PM call for united ocean protection at the Melanesian Oceans Summit, as Solomon Islands says climate loss and damage costs it $79m a year. Business & Governance: Digicel PNG’s CEO steps down; South Korea delays its stablecoin bill; and the US GAO warns Compact funding delays could hurt Palau.