AGP Executive Report

Indo-Pacific Diplomacy: India and Indonesia used the 8th Joint Commission Meeting in New Delhi to deepen their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, with talks spanning defence, maritime cooperation, fintech, critical minerals, healthcare, tourism and education ahead of Modi’s Jakarta visit. Regional Security Mediation: Pakistan’s interior minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iran’s counterpart in Tehran to deliver messages tied to US-Iran talks, as Islamabad tries to play a dual role in the Middle East. Aviation Green Push Under Strain: IATA warned sustainable aviation fuel still covers under 1% of jet demand, while Middle East conflict is set to halve airline profits in 2026 as fuel costs surge. Energy Costs at Home: Bangladesh inflation jumped to a 16-month high of 9.42% on rising food and non-food prices, while Bangladesh’s power minister said supply is adequate but temporary peak disruptions can occur. Politics & Prices: India’s domestic LPG cylinder price rose by Rs 29, drawing fresh criticism from opposition leaders across states. Tech & Space: The Philippines’ space council backed new sovereign satellite plans, including an Earth observation MULA launch targeted for April 2027. Environment Watch: Thailand ordered urgent checks after pink sea cucumbers washed ashore at Suan Son Beach in Rayong.

Aviation & Trade Links: Philippine Airlines has been invited to join the Oneworld Alliance, set to make it the 16th member and the second full-member carrier in Southeast Asia, promising wider global connectivity and Mabuhay Miles integration. Middle East Diplomacy: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran carrying a letter from Pakistan’s top leadership to Iran’s Supreme Leader, as talks continue amid US-Iran tensions. Urban Safety Crackdown: Delhi’s government says it has demolished 94 illegal buildings and sealed 114 others since June 1, stepping up enforcement after the Malviya Nagar fire tragedy. India-Nepal Tech Cooperation: India and Nepal signed an MoU under BHASHINI and Kathmandu University to expand multilingual AI and digital public infrastructure. Regional Climate Watch: Analysis highlights El Niño’s growing risk for Asia, with drought and heat expected to stress agriculture, power and water supplies. AI Policy in the Region: A guide for Southeast Asian builders stresses knowing which AI governance rules are mandatory versus voluntary as regulators tighten oversight. Sports: Nelly Korda surged in the U.S. Women’s Open, while India’s U-18 hockey teams celebrated Asia Cup wins.

Defense & Security: The U.S. has approved a $1.5 billion Foreign Military Sale to New Zealand for five MH-60R Seahawk maritime helicopters, aimed at upgrading anti-submarine warfare and maritime surveillance as Wellington boosts defence spending. Economy & Energy: PM Modi chaired India’s Economic Advisory Council meeting focused on sustaining growth and buffering risks from the West Asia conflict, with attention on energy-market shocks and trade-route disruptions. Aviation & Connectivity: Delhi’s IGI Airport says transfer passengers are rising fast—27% of traffic in May—cementing it as a major transit hub. Education Equity: Hyderabad slum-area data suggests only about 13% of children attend government schools, with many priced out of private options. Tech & Jobs: A PwC survey finds more than a third of Bangladeshi CEOs expect AI to cut junior jobs, while senior roles are less likely to be affected. Sports: Modi congratulated India’s U-18 men’s hockey team after a 4-1 Asia Cup final win over Japan. Social Policy: Philippines’ Asean SOGIE caucus welcomed Marcos’ Pride message but urged concrete steps like a national anti-discrimination law.

South Korea-Mongolia Diplomacy: Seoul’s Unification Minister Jeong Dong-yeong met Mongolia’s President Khurelsukh, urging Ulaanbaatar to press North Korea back to dialogue and exploring trilateral cooperation. Philippines Water Crisis: Metro Pacific Water took over San Jose del Monte’s water system as an interim operator under a two-month deal, aiming to restore service for 250,000+ residents. Nepal Mobility Push: Uber launched in Nepal with Uber Go/Comfort and Uber Bike, partnering with Taximandu and testing different driver payment models. India Economy Watch: India’s Q4 growth surprised on the upside at 7.8% year-on-year, lifting FY26 to 7.7% despite West Asia war worries. India-Russia Ties: Vladimir Putin again praised “trust-based, brotherly” India-Russia relations at SPIEF, warning against external pressure on New Delhi. West Asia Flashpoint: US-Iran tensions stayed high near the 100-day mark, with Iran insisting on ceasefire conditions and the US shooting down more drones. Pacific Ocean Governance: A new Office for Pacific Ocean Commissioner is consolidating support to be based in Palau as it transitions from the PIF secretariat. Defense Procurement: The US approved a $1.5bn sale of Seahawk maritime helicopters to New Zealand to boost homeland defense.

Undersea Security: Singapore-led GUIDE launched at the Shangri-La Dialogue to help 17 countries share best practices and early warnings on attacks or damage to subsea telecom and energy cables. Clean Energy Investment: The International Solar Alliance and the World Bank kicked off a Pacific SIDS solar dialogue in Bali, pushing investment-ready solar-plus-storage projects and a 220 MW tender pipeline for Mauritius. Indo-Pacific Military Readiness: The U.S. Army showed battalion live-fire training that links 30mm Strykers, mortars and one-way attack drones for faster target engagement in Pacific scenarios. South China Sea Diplomacy: Japan and the Philippines moved to deepen intelligence sharing and defense coordination under a GSOMIA push, while critics warn Manila may be enabling Japan’s wider military normalization. West Asia Hunger Fallout: The WFP says the conflict is driving millions toward hunger as fuel and transport costs rise and aid funding falls. India’s Data-Centre Boom: Blackstone-backed AirTrunk plans $30bn by 2030 and 5GW of capacity, as India also rolls out tax and RBI steps to attract foreign inflows and support the rupee. Central Asia Returnees: Kyrgyzstan convened a regional council on rehabilitating conflict-zone returnees, noting 2,100 repatriations since 2019 and stressing human-rights and child protection.

UN Politics: The Philippines said its failed bid for a 2027–28 UN Security Council seat was hurt by “political noise” in the Senate, while Kyrgyzstan’s win drew congratulations from Manila. AI & Education: Kazakhstan leads Central Asia in generative AI use, with OpenAI discussing “ChatGPT Edu” and expanded teacher/student training. Northeast Asia Peace Talks: South Korea’s unification minister Chung Dong-young urged a restart of four-party talks (South Korea, North Korea, US, China) and suggested widening the format with Mongolia, Japan and Russia. China-North Korea: Xi Jinping is set to visit North Korea starting June 8, as ties deepen amid sanctions and regional security shifts. Labour & Tech Profits: South Korea’s labour minister urged major chip firms to share “excess profits” with suppliers and workers to curb inequality. India-UK Security & Trade: UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper’s India visit advanced deals on AI, critical minerals, defence, education and a maritime security centre. Markets & Indonesia: Indonesia’s stocks and rupiah slid sharply as investors turned bearish on President Prabowo’s more interventionist moves. Climate Risk: The UN warned El Niño is likely to return, raising heat and weather extremes across Asia and threatening agriculture and water supplies. EU-Armenia Support: The EU pledged over €50m to help Armenia amid Russia’s trade restrictions. Business: Bayer opened a Shandong innovation hub; Birkenstock bet on China growth; Singapore plans to expand data centres beyond 1.4GW for AI demand.

Maritime Cooperation: The Philippines sent its newly commissioned BRP Miguel Malvar to RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii, marking a return after 2022 and underscoring Manila’s push for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Diplomacy & Energy: India and Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodriguez met PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi, focusing on oil and broader business ties as India looks to diversify energy away from West Asia. UN Multilateralism: Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman was elected President of the 81st UN General Assembly, with Dhaka’s cabinet hailing the win. Security & Espionage: A joint advisory says Chinese spies are using LinkedIn and job sites to lure Westerners into sharing sensitive information. EU-Armenia Rift: The EU pledged €50 million in immediate aid to Armenia after Russia imposed new export restrictions, calling it economic coercion. Climate Preparedness: Cambodia launched an early warning system for climate hazards in four high-risk provinces, backed by UNDP and the Green Climate Fund. Regional Defence Tech: Australia and Japan conducted an airborne ISR exercise to share intelligence data in the Pacific. West Asia Fallout: India reported 13 injured nationals after an attack on Kuwait airport, as tensions with Iran continue.

UN Security Council Bid: The Philippines lost its bid for a 2027–2028 non-permanent seat after Kyrgyzstan won the Asia-Pacific slot in the fourth round, 142 votes to Manila’s 49, prompting Manila to accept the result and congratulate Bishkek. Diplomacy Setback: Germany also failed to win a UN Security Council seat, losing out in the Western European and Others contest, a fresh blow for Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Pacific Security: The U.S. carried out another strike on an alleged drug boat in the eastern Pacific, killing two crew members, as Washington steps up maritime anti-trafficking operations. West Asia Shockwaves: India approved a ₹10,000 crore ATF price stabilisation scheme to shield airlines from jet-fuel spikes tied to the West Asia crisis, while also moving to scrap capital gains tax on FPI investments in government securities to support inflows. China Tensions: New Zealand said it will raise concerns with Beijing after China banned four NZ lawmakers over a Taiwan visit, calling it a departure from past practice. Spycraft Warning: ASIO and Five Eyes warned that Chinese spies are using LinkedIn and job ads to target defence and government personnel. Environment Clash: Fiji rejected an Australian billionaire’s plan to ship and burn regional rubbish for energy, citing public health, hazardous ash and tourism risks.

West Asia Energy Shock: The OECD warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push global growth down to 2.1% in 2026 and lift inflation sharply, with Asia hit hardest by energy reliance. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iraq approved a major expansion of crude exports via the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline, aiming to triple flows as shipping disruptions around Hormuz squeeze southern routes. Diplomacy on Iran: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers the administration expected Iran’s retaliation, while insisting the Strait must reopen; the remarks underline rising costs and risk for regional partners. Aviation Fuel Relief: India’s cabinet approved a ₹10,000 crore jet fuel stabilisation fund to cap ATF prices and shield airlines from West Asia-linked spikes. Bangladesh LNG Moves: Bangladesh approved imports of five LNG cargoes to manage supply risks from the Iran war. Tech and Industry: Malaysia’s Gas Malaysia launched Asia-Pacific’s first LOOP system to turn methane into graphene and hydrogen-rich gas. Central Asia Connectivity: Cyprus and Kazakhstan pushed deeper trade and connectivity ties, including new direct air links. Politics Watch: South Korea held local elections, seen as the first big test for President Lee Jae-myung. Sports: Pakistan U-18 hockey booked a semi-final spot after beating Bangladesh 5-2, setting up a clash with India.

Philippines–Vietnam Investment Push: President Marcos’ Japan trip delivered P266.3bn in new pledges, followed by President To Lam’s Philippines visit with 15 agreements across trade, tech, tourism and agriculture—both framed as alliance-building amid South China Sea friction and Middle East-driven economic strain. Indonesia–Türkiye Security and Trade: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan arrived in Jakarta for talks with Indonesia on boosting trade and defence ties, with plans spanning infrastructure, energy, transport, digitalisation, AI and halal industries. West Asia Shockwaves: The US says it intercepted Iranian drones in Kuwait after “self-defence” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island; sanctions relief remains off the table as Iran–Israel–Lebanon tensions keep raising regional risk. India–Myanmar Connectivity: India and Myanmar agreed to expand trade via Rupee-Kyat settlement and deepen cooperation in agro-processing, energy, petroleum and mining. India–Oman CEPA: The India-Oman deal takes effect as a stabiliser for trade and energy corridors while Strait of Hormuz uncertainty persists. Solomon Islands Pivot: New PM Matthew Wale says he will review the 2022 China security pact and negotiate a broader treaty with Australia, as Canberra seeks a “reset.” Markets & Tech Wealth: South Korea’s chip-driven surge lifts its China trade balance into surplus; meanwhile Zhang Yiming overtakes Mukesh Ambani to become China’s richest, powered by ByteDance’s AI push.

Data Center Transparency Push: Environmental activist Erin Brockovich is backing a new map so residents can report what’s happening around AI data centers, citing worries over secrecy, power bills, water use, land impacts and noise. Uzbekistan Creative Economy & Biosafety: Uzbekistan says it will grow its creative economy to 145 trillion soums, while also launching a biosafety initiative aligned with the Cartagena Protocol under a GEF-backed national project. Middle East Air Travel Resumes: As a fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds, Gulf airspace is reopening and some airlines are restarting flights to Dubai, though schedules remain cautious. Israel Defense Exports Hit Record: Israel’s defense exports rose nearly 30% to $19.2 billion in 2025, with missile/air-defense and observation systems leading. India Fuel Use Shifts Amid West Asia War: India’s LPG consumption fell over 19% in May year-on-year, while petrol rose and diesel stayed flat. Fiji Workers Under PALM Scrutiny: Fiji’s employment ministry is responding after a PALM worker left approved work in Australia and ended up homeless, stressing support-system responsibility. Cambodia-UNCLOS Move: Cambodia’s National Assembly backs its plan to use UNCLOS compulsory conciliation over a maritime claims dispute with Thailand after Thailand withdrew from a long-running MoU.

Philippines–Vietnam Security Boost: President Marcos and Vietnam’s To Lam elevated ties to an “Enhanced Strategic Partnership,” promising wider economic and stronger political and defense cooperation. Indo-Pacific Defence Dialogue: India and Australia pushed freedom of navigation and maritime trade, agreeing to develop an MoU on defence articles and services ahead of their next ministers’ dialogue. Pacific Media Under Pressure: Papua New Guinea hosted the Pacific Media Partnership Conference, with broadcasters warning that falling revenue, misinformation and costs are forcing new business models and regional collaboration. Moana Pasifika Rescue Talks: New Zealand’s Winston Peters has started talks with NZ Rugby to find a sustainable future for the Moana Pasifika team after funding concerns. Samoa Drug-Ring Warning: Samoa’s PM said youth are being “used” by international drug rings after two alleged hitmen were linked to a murder in Vietnam. Tonga Child Poverty: A new Tonga–UNICEF report finds 25.3% of children in multidimensional poverty, worst for the youngest and rural communities. Digital Infrastructure Push: Google and Telstra announced a partnership to strengthen Australia’s resilient, secure connectivity for the digital and AI future. Markets Jitter on Gulf Risk: Asia stocks stayed cautious as Middle East tensions and higher oil prices offset AI optimism, while Singapore banks hit fresh highs. Energy Shock Fallout: War-risk premiums surged for shipping through the Middle East corridor, with insurers repricing voyage-by-voyage amid Strait of Hormuz fears.

West Asia Security: Kuwait’s army says its air defences are intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks, urging residents to follow safety instructions as regional tensions keep simmering. Indo-Pacific Defence: Australia’s AUKUS push gets a delivery-focused boost, with the UK unveiling underwater drone-carried tech for undersea sensors and weapons, while an independent inquiry led by Peter Garrett will scrutinise the pact’s cost, timing and nuclear waste plans. Regional Diplomacy: India’s President Droupadi Murmu meets Myanmar’s U Min Aung Hlaing, stressing shared Buddhist ties and support for peace and reconciliation, as PM Modi also advances trade, security and border cooperation. Energy Corridors & Green Power: Azerbaijan’s Baku Energy Forum spotlights Central Asia–Azerbaijan green energy corridors, EU connectivity plans, and regional grid integration that could unlock up to $30bn in benefits. Climate & Health: A Lancet-linked report warns cancer cases will surge by 2050 while a global workforce shortfall could reach 100 million. Asia Economy & Travel: Iran-war fuel shocks are straining Southeast Asia tourism, with jet fuel costs and uncertainty driving cancellations and higher prices. Policy & Regulation: Odisha mandates EVs for official use with price caps, and Japan bans CBN amid health concerns.

Indo-Pacific Security: US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth softened his China rhetoric at Shangri-La, stressing “measured, deliberate strength” while warning of Beijing’s military buildup. India-Australia Defence: Rajnath Singh and Australia’s Richard Marles will co-chair the second India-Australia Defence Ministers’ Dialogue in New Delhi, focusing on interoperability and co-development. West Asia Shock to Asia: Iran war tensions and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated and threatening tourism demand across Southeast Asia. Markets: Asian shares rose as AI-driven chip demand offset Gulf risks, though traders still watch US jobs and inflation. Pacific Energy Push: Fiji, Tuvalu and Vanuatu are training communities in solar installation to cut reliance on imported fuel. Pacific Climate Finance: IMF highlights PNG’s green finance reforms; AFD backs a Rabaul “green port” project. Logistics & Data Centres: ESR and Mitsubishi Estate Asia plan a A$700m Western Sydney logistics estate, while Google and partners move a 25MW solar farm to power data-centre growth. Governance & Rights: Thailand’s marriage equality law removes dependent-visa barriers for LTR holders’ spouses. Local Disruption: Fiji’s speed camera maintenance will bring temporary road closures.

Philippines–Vietnam State Visit: Vietnamese President Tô Lâm arrived in Manila for a two-day state visit, the first by a Communist Party chief to the Philippines, as both countries gear up for the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties and a decade of strategic partnership, with talks expected to cover trade, food security, defense and maritime cooperation. Indo-Pacific Defence Push: At Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, Japan’s defence minister rejected China’s “new militarism” claims while warning of China’s rapid, opaque military build-up; meanwhile, India held high-level defence engagements with New Zealand and Singapore, and India–Australia’s second defence ministers’ dialogue is set for June 1 in New Delhi. US–China and Regional Security: Filipino experts said multilateralism can beat confrontation as ASEAN keeps room for engagement; China’s delegation also faced heavy questioning at the forum, with China and Japan trading sharp maritime and security accusations. West Asia Shockwaves: The Iran conflict is driving up energy and food costs, with FAO warning of a deeper global food security crisis if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. Domestic Policy in India: India’s Shivraj Chouhan will launch the “Khet Bachao Abhiyan” from June 1 to cut excessive fertiliser use, while India also kept an EPFO wage ceiling at ₹15,000 for now amid labour code changes. Maritime and Security Flash: The US carried out another strike on an alleged drug boat in the eastern Pacific, killing three and bringing the campaign death toll to 205.

Underwater Security Pact: Malaysia, Singapore and 15 other countries launched GUIDE at the Shangri-La Dialogue, setting shared principles to defend critical underwater infrastructure as cables and energy links become strategic targets. Philippines-China Trust Test: Manila’s defence chief said any future improvement with China hinges on Beijing adopting a government other countries can trust, while stressing the Philippines has no issue with the Chinese people. US-China Messaging at Shangri-La: US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reassured Pacific allies and softened China rhetoric, calling for “drama-free” ties and urging allies to shoulder more security costs. China’s Naval Reach: Japan-linked monitoring says China deployed a new Type 054B frigate with the Liaoning carrier group in the Western Pacific, signaling more sustained blue-water operations. Cambodia’s Pragmatic Turn: A Cambodia-focused analysis argues a forced-labour scam tragedy pushed Phnom Penh toward partnerships built around tackling transnational problems, not ideology. West Asia Shockwaves: India’s RBI warned prolonged West Asia conflict could hit growth and inflation, while governments moved to protect fuel supplies, including 30-day LPG reserve plans. Climate Alarm for the Pacific: Samoa’s PM urged urgent emissions cuts ahead of the IPCC’s final warning, warning low-lying islands face sovereignty loss and relocation.