AGP Executive Report

Philippines Credit Gap: Only 3% of adult Filipinos have credit cards, leaving many reliant on informal lending that doesn’t build formal credit histories, while advanced Asia-Pacific markets like Hong Kong and Japan sit near 70%+ penetration. AI & Policy: Shanghai will host the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) July 17-20, with 1,100+ companies and a global AI governance meeting focused on regulation and innovation. West Asia Shipping Shock: The Iran crisis is intensifying again as the U.S. resumes strikes and Iran’s hard-liners press escalation, keeping the Strait of Hormuz risk front and center for trade routes. India-EU Business Push: Jaishankar and Goyal joined an India-EU Business Roundtable in Brussels, highlighting deeper trade, technology and R&D ties under the India-EU FTA. Aviation Growth Watch: Cebu Pacific reported first-half passenger traffic up 4.24%, led by domestic demand, as it expects further recovery in the second half. Climate Front: The UK faces a potentially record-breaking heatwave, with 30°C+ days stretching into a third week. Pacific Climate Storytelling: Human Rights Watch and Mark Ruffalo will premiere immersive documentary “Solwata” at Venice, spotlighting Solomon Islands communities facing relocation from sea-level rise.

Strait of Melaka Security: An analyst says Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore should move beyond anti-piracy cooperation and run multinational defence stress tests that also cover South China Sea escalation, warning disruptions could reroute shipping, raise freight costs and strain energy flows. Parliament Watch (Malaysia): Lawmakers are set to press on spotty internet access despite full signal, West Asia-linked fuel subsidy pressure, and new rules for confinement centres as the Communications and Multimedia (Amendment) Bill 2026 is tabled. Bangladesh-Malaysia Ties: Dhaka signals a deeper partnership after Prime Minister Tarique Rahman chose Malaysia for his first official visit, including fast-tracked talks toward an FTA aimed at 2027. West Asia Shockwaves: The US reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports and scrapped a proposed 20% Hormuz cargo fee, while Trump warns of strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges “next week,” keeping oil and shipping on edge. South Asia Policy & Economy: Nepal targets exports at 20% of GDP in two years, but experts call it unrealistic; Vietnam consolidated transfer pricing rules under Decree 255/2026. Tech & Growth: Pakistan’s IT exports hit a record $4.5b in FY2025-26; Sri Lanka plans South Asia’s first passenger drone pilot. Governance & Society: Philippines polling finds the Senate among the least trusted institutions, while rising Afghan child marriage is highlighted by new reporting.

Aviation & Connectivity: Cebu Pacific will become the first Southeast Asian low-cost carrier to install SpaceX Starlink inflight internet, with rollout planned for 2027 as part of a major multi-airline satellite order. Maritime Security: India’s DG Shipping will monitor Indian seafarers in West Asia regardless of vessel flag, after attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with threat assessments and tighter crew welfare checks. Gulf Trade Shock: The Strait of Hormuz closure is hitting LNG flows—India faces potential gas curtailments up to 1.5 mt/month—raising fears for fertilizer and power costs across South Asia. Finance & Policy: India’s finance minister reviewed RBI swap schemes for FCNR(B) deposits and overseas borrowing, urging banks to boost NRI outreach via GIFT City and digital channels. Regional Diplomacy: Turkmenistan’s foreign minister met ASEAN’s Kao Kim Hourn in Jakarta, discussing transport, energy, trade, digital economy and education ties. Business & Capital Markets: Malaysia’s IPO market stayed Southeast Asia’s most active in 1H 2026, while Singapore overtook Indonesia in IPO rankings, signaling shifting investor confidence. Sports & Soft Power: RIMPAC—the world’s largest naval drills—kicked off, with 31 countries and 25,000 personnel, as Pacific security tensions deepen.

South China Sea Security: A Global Times editorial slammed Japan’s “stakeholder” claims, arguing Tokyo is pushing “remilitarisation” in the South China Sea. Pacific Defence: Solomon Islands and other Pacific leaders are stepping up security cooperation after China’s long-range missile test, with Australia and Fiji’s Ocean of Peace alliance now drawing wider attention. Weather & Disaster: Typhoon Bavi has triggered mass evacuations in China’s Liaoning province, while Japan braces for heavy rain from indirect effects; El Niño is also forecast to intensify later in 2026, raising flood and drought risks across East Africa and Asia. Markets & Tech: Nvidia has reportedly cut more than half of its Asian authorized AI chip buyers after tougher compliance checks aimed at preventing China-linked access; South Korea’s AI-fuelled KOSPI boom has flipped into a bear market. India Diplomacy & Finance: Jaishankar launched India’s UNSC 2028-29 campaign with a “Shanti” vision for Global South voices, while Sitharaman urged banks to boost NRI outreach to mobilise foreign-currency deposits. Health & Business: Vietnam-based Recce Pharmaceuticals secured a long-term patent for anti-infective candidates; Bayer signed hospital MoUs to strengthen diagnostic imaging in Vietnam.

West Asia Tensions: The US reimposed a naval blockade and signaled a “20%” cargo reimbursement tied to Hormuz transit as Iran and US forces traded missile and drone strikes, pushing oil higher and keeping shipping uncertainty front and center. Diplomacy & Sanctions: EU foreign ministers meet to weigh fresh sanctions over Israeli settlement expansion, while Poland backs India’s balanced West Asia stance and insists the Strait of Hormuz must stay open. India’s Global Push: India launches a parallel bid for a UN Security Council seat, campaigning for the Asia-Pacific non-permanent post for 2028 while continuing its push for a permanent seat. Economy Watch: India’s retail inflation jumped to 4.38% in June, reviving expectations of an RBI rate hike. Climate & Disaster: China faces severe flooding after Typhoon Bavi, with authorities warning of flash-flood risks. Public Health: Philippines health officials warn that many TB patients delay care, urging medical attention after two weeks of coughing. Regional Business: Hilton opened its first Curio Collection lifestyle hotel in India, while Malaysia prepares a climate bill and carbon tax framework.

Pacific Security: Papua New Guinea and Pacific leaders are urged to treat China’s reported Pacific ICBM launch as a serious regional concern, with calls for restraint, transparency, and a renewed push to keep the “Blue Pacific” a nuclear-free zone. South China Sea Diplomacy: The US, UK and 12 other countries reiterated that China’s South China Sea claims are illegal under the 2016 ruling, while Beijing again rejected the decision. West Asia Shockwaves: Iran says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz after expanded attacks, as oil prices jumped and Asia markets slipped on renewed war fears. Cybercrime & Scams: Deepfake scams cloning prime ministers’ faces and voices are spreading across Southeast Asia, including a Singapore case that reportedly swindled millions. Climate Finance Accountability: Oxfam says rich countries overstate “true value” of climate finance by about $100bn, with adaptation funding far short of needs. Regional Growth & Investment: Sabah pitches itself as an Asia-Pacific impact investing hub, while UNCTAD reports rising FDI momentum in Central Asia led by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. India–Pacific Ties: India and New Zealand elevate relations into a strategic partnership roadmap through 2030, spanning trade, defense, education, agriculture and maritime cooperation.

Pacific Security: China’s rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific drew swift condemnation from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US, with critics warning it signals a more assertive nuclear posture. South China Sea Diplomacy: The US, EU and 13 other countries marked the 10th anniversary of the 2016 arbitration ruling by reaffirming China’s claims are illegal and urging a rules-based, UNCLOS approach. West Asia Flashpoint: The US carried out fresh strikes on Iran after an attack in the Strait of Hormuz; Tehran hit back at Gulf states, while negotiations face fresh strain. Indo-Pacific Partnerships: India and New Zealand elevated ties to a “strategic partnership” with a roadmap to 2030, including defence and maritime security cooperation and a trade push. Humanitarian Crisis: Fighting in Sudan’s El Obeid continues amid fears of another massacre, as experts warn the worst humanitarian crisis is deepening. Regional Economy: Central Asia braces for a fuel squeeze as Russia restricts diesel exports, raising the risk of a wider supply shock. Local Politics (India): Telangana’s opposition and ruling parties traded sharp barbs over the Kaleshwaram project, escalating election-season tensions.

Pacific Security Shock: China’s rare submarine-launched long-range ballistic missile test in the Pacific drew swift condemnation from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US, with Beijing calling it routine training. South China Sea Law Push: Fourteen countries reaffirmed the 2016 arbitral ruling as final and legally binding, rejecting any legal basis for China’s maritime claims while urging peaceful dispute resolution. West Asia Energy Tension: Iran announced it will close the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice,” as the US launched fresh strikes after attacks on a Cyprus-flagged container ship, raising fears of wider disruption to shipping and oil markets. ASEAN Crisis Readiness: The Philippines urged ASEAN to strengthen crisis communication and coordination after West Asia tensions exposed vulnerabilities in energy, trade and food supply chains. Typhoon Bavi Aftermath: Typhoon Bavi hit China’s east coast after mass evacuations, with flooding and landslides reported and 134 injured in Taiwan. Regional Trade Talks: India and Canada wrapped a third CEPA negotiation round in Ottawa, aiming to finish talks in 2026. Local Governance Wins: Uttarakhand CM Dhami delivered a sewing machine to help a resident start a jute bag business, while Haryana launched an upgraded liquor “Track and Trace” system.

Indo-Pacific Security: China’s rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific drew fast condemnation from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US, with Beijing calling it routine training and saying it was not aimed at any country. Disaster Watch: Typhoon Bavi hit China’s Zhejiang and battered Taiwan and Japan, triggering mass evacuations, flight and school cancellations, and widespread power outages. Diplomacy & Trade: PM Modi’s three-nation push culminated in New Zealand, where India and NZ upgraded ties to a Strategic Partnership, set a goal to double trade to Rs 35,000 crore by 2030, and signed defence, maritime and counter-terror pacts. Regional Energy: The EU launched a €5m South Asia energy connectivity project for Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka to expand cross-border power markets. Humanitarian & Conflict: Sudan’s war continues with El Obeid under siege, raising fears of another massacre. Economy: ADB forecasts Bangladesh’s inflation will peak highest in South Asia at 8.8% in FY2027, tied to energy tariff revisions.

Indo-Pacific Security: China’s rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific drew swift condemnation from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US, with Beijing calling it routine training. India–New Zealand Strategic Partnership: PM Narendra Modi and Kiwi leader Christopher Luxon upgraded ties to a Strategic Partnership in Auckland, targeting Rs 35,000 crore trade by 2030 and agreeing on a roadmap plus maritime security dialogue and defence cooperation. Typhoon Bavi Disrupts East Asia: The massive storm triggered emergency preparations across China, Taiwan and Japan as forecasts warned of destructive winds and heavy rain. Pacific Resilience Push: Pacific countries were urged to stay vigilant through cyclone season and follow daily guidance from meteorological offices. Environment Watch: Conservationists warned that over 40% of migratory bird species are declining, pointing to habitat loss, pollution and climate stress. Regional Tech/Infrastructure: South Korea plans the 8,900km AUG East subsea cable landing at Saemangeum, with links across multiple Asia-Pacific markets. Markets: Bitcoin climbed toward $64,000 as chip stocks rallied and the yen strengthened.

Indo-Pacific Security: China’s rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific drew sharp condemnation from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US, with regional leaders warning it undermines stability and transparency. Diplomacy & Trade: PM Modi’s first New Zealand visit in 40 years kicks off with diaspora events in Auckland, as both sides look to build on a fresh economic momentum. Regional Defence Pacts: New Zealand is weighing participation in Australia-Fiji’s “Ocean of Peace” defence agreement, reflecting tighter Pacific security coordination. Health & Innovation: Singapore is deepening its medtech push as Bristol Myers Squibb names a Pan Asia Cluster hub in Singapore to expand regional access and talent. Public Health: Philippines TB programs are using AI-assisted chest X-ray detection to speed up diagnosis, aiming to make care more sustainable. Humanitarian & Crime Prevention: Nepal says 836 citizens were rescued from online scam hubs across Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Thailand since March 27. Urban Livelihoods: Civil society in Bengaluru urges the state to stop blanket street-vendor evictions and fully implement the Street Vendors Act to protect livelihoods while improving pedestrian safety.

Pacific Security: China’s rare submarine-launched nuclear-capable missile test in the Pacific drew swift condemnation from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US, with China calling it routine training and saying it was not aimed at any country. West Asia Tensions: Fresh US-Iran strikes and Iran’s retaliation keep the Gulf on edge, even as Washington says technical talks with Tehran will continue. Indo-Pacific Diplomacy: PM Narendra Modi met Australia’s opposition leader Angus Taylor in Melbourne as India and Australia roll out a package of defence, maritime, civil nuclear and critical-minerals deals. Philippines Governance: President Marcos extended the Philippines’ civil registration and vital statistics push to 2030 to strengthen legal identity and birth-death registration. Malaysia Election Mood: In Johor, voters—especially the Chinese community—are focused more on housing and living costs than geopolitics as the state election nears. Environment & Trade: Long An International Port won a “Smart Green Port Company of the Year 2026” award, while APFNet said it has backed 50+ forestry projects across Asia-Pacific.

Pacific Security: China’s rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific drew fast condemnation from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US, with Beijing calling it routine training and saying it was not aimed at any country. South Korea Politics: South Korea’s Supreme Court upheld former President Yoon Suk-yeol’s prison sentence over obstructing his arrest, closing one legal chapter but leaving polarization and fallout for the conservative camp. Extreme Weather: Typhoon Bavi is set to batter Taiwan, Japan and China’s east coast, with hundreds of flights cancelled and warnings of destructive winds and heavy rain. Indo-Pacific Diplomacy: South Korea expanded its Indo-Pacific security role by commanding the maritime component of RIMPAC 2026 for the first time, deepening US naval logistics cooperation. Energy & Trade: Governments are preparing to refill strategic oil reserves through 2028 to cushion supply shocks tied to the Iran conflict, supporting crude demand as OPEC+ unwinds output cuts. Bangladesh Governance: The land minister said land acquisition must be transparent while protecting the environment and agricultural land, as the land allocation committee approved new projects. India-Indonesia Ties: PM Modi visited Indonesia’s Prambanan Temple with President Prabowo, marking the start of an India-led conservation and restoration effort.

Pacific Security: China’s rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific drew fast condemnation from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US, with Beijing calling it routine training; Pacific Alliances: New Zealand says it will explore joining the Australia-Fiji “Ocean of Peace” defence pact, while Pacific leaders push for a united statement against the missile launch; West Asia Tensions: India urged restraint after renewed attacks on shipping and rising oil prices, as the US and Iran trade strikes and fears grow around the Strait of Hormuz; Korean Peninsula: US, South Korea and Japan reaffirmed denuclearization goals for North Korea and pledged continued dialogue; Markets & Growth: The ADB cut its developing Asia growth forecast to 4.9%, citing prolonged energy shocks, while Asia shares rose on chip strength and oil gains; Education & Courts: India’s Supreme Court sought CBSE responses on compartment exams for Gulf and West Asia students after disrupted assessments; Climate & Health: Experts warned climate-driven displacement and food insecurity could make infectious diseases harder to contain; Business & Tech: Bain flagged India’s medtech momentum toward $35bn by 2030, and a new SAF push in Uzbekistan signals Central Asia’s bid to join greener aviation fuel supply chains.

Indo-Pacific Security: China’s navy confirmed a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific, calling it routine training with a dummy warhead, while Australia, the US and Pacific island leaders condemned it as destabilising and urged restraint. Pacific Diplomacy: Australia is pushing a stronger Pacific front on security, signing defence-related arrangements with Fiji and planning leader meetings in Brisbane with Samoa, Tonga and Papua New Guinea as China concerns mount. Regional Economy & Tech: The IMF cut its 2026 world growth forecast again, citing West Asia risks even as AI demand helps cushion the slowdown; markets also slid on renewed US-Iran tensions. Digital Inclusion: Globe Telecom launched Starlink Mobile direct-to-cell service in the Philippines after regulator approval, aiming to connect remote and disaster-hit areas. Policy & Industry: India tightened solar PV rules by making approved cell sourcing mandatory for government-linked projects, while Bain flagged India’s medtech exports hitting $4B and Asia-Pacific’s push toward innovation and market access. Governance: Philippines President Marcos appointed Philip Lo as presidential assistant for the Visayas, boosting coordination between Malacañang and local governments.

Indo-Pacific Diplomacy: PM Narendra Modi told Indonesia’s parliament India backs “development, not expansionism,” as both countries deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership amid rising South China Sea tensions. Pacific Security: Papua New Guinea PM James Marape urged global powers to keep the Pacific an “Ocean of Peace” after China’s nuclear-capable missile test; Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale lodged a formal protest and called for a stronger Pacific Islands Forum stance. Nuclear-Energy Cooperation: The US, Japan and South Korea signed an Indo-Pacific SMR cooperation MOU on NATO sidelines, aiming to speed deployments and energy security. Maritime & Energy Route Watch: India said nine ships with 198 seafarers remain safe near the Strait of Hormuz while it monitors tensions. Disaster Response (India): Assam’s flood damage assessment team arrived for on-the-ground checks; in Kerala’s Wayanad, road access to the landslide site was restored as rescue intensifies. Business & Tourism: Finn Partners bought Honner to expand in Australia and Asia-Pacific; Malaysia reported 17.5m international arrivals Jan–May, up 3.4%, and signed a Tourism Malaysia–Tripadvisor deal for Visit Malaysia 2026.